UFC 317 – Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France: Preview & Betting Tips

Credit: UFC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs7soHEbL_A

The co-main event of UFC 317 features a flyweight championship bout, as reigning champ Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line for the fourth time against Kai Kara-France.

Pantoja (29-5) is on a ridiculous seven-fight win streak which includes victories over the likes of Brandon Moreno, where he won the title, and then defences of his flyweight belt against Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and Kai Asakura.

Kara-France (25-11) has devastating knockout power for a flyweight, with highlight-reel wins over Rogerio Bontorin, Cody Garbrandt, and Steve Erceg in recent times. The New Zealander has been in the top 15 of the 125-pounds division for some time, but whenever he’s attempted to make that step up to prove he is truly elite, he’s tasted defeat.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja – Odds 1.40 (Bet 365)

Record: 29-5

Age: 35

Height: 5ft5

Reach: 67”

Weight: Flyweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Kai Kara-France – Odds 3.00 (Bet 365)

Record: 25-11

Age: 32

Height: 5ft4

Reach: 69”

Weight: Flyweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France: Analysis

Alexandre Pantoja is clearly the most well-rounded fighter in this one. He has proven to be extremely durable and versatile throughout his career having stood and traded with the elite strikers of the division. But, he has also taken opponents down to the mat on his terms and controlled them with ease. 

The Brazilian is a legitimate BJJ black belt, and we’ve seen those skills on display in recent times. And it would be the smart move to utilise this part of his game at UFC 317, just to mitigate the risk of being knocked out by the challenger.

As mentioned previously, Kai Kara-France has crisp striking, he is fast on his feet and he has quick hands. And he’s proven if he touches your chin he’s putting you out. But, his achilles’ heel remains grappling exchanges against high-level BJJ guys. That being said, he’s only ever lost once via submission in the UFC, and that came five years ago against Brandon Royval. 

Pantoja vs Kara-France: Prediction & Betting Tips

This fight sets up like many of Pantoja’s past victories; he is facing a striker with dynamite in his hands but limited tools on the ground. Kara-France is tough and talented, but Pantoja’s relentlessness and grappling pedigree should be too much over five rounds. 

Usually when a champion hits 35 you start to see signs of a slight decline and slowing down. But that’s not the case with the Brazilian. If anything, he is looking more and more dominant with each title defence.

I am expecting either a late submission or a dominant decision win for the champ in this one because, while the New Zealander is super tough, he is clearly the poorer grappler in this one. I like the double chance in this one: Alexandre Pantoja to win by either submission or points at odds of 1.65 (Bet 365).

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