UFC 317 – Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira: Preview & Betting Tips

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This weekend’s UFC 317 main event promises fireworks as former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria makes his highly anticipated lightweight debut against former 155-pound king Charles Oliveira, with the vacant lightweight title up for grabs.

Topuria (16-0) arrives at lightweight after a stellar 2024 at featherweight, where he announced himself as a pound-for-pound threat by knocking out Alexander Volkanovski in Round 2 to capture the belt, then defending it with a ruthless finish of Max Holloway, who hadn’t even be dropped in his career beforehand, let alone knocked out cold.

Oliveira (35-10), meanwhile, is chasing history. Already the UFC’s all-time submission leader, the Brazilian seeks to become the first fighter to reclaim the lightweight title on two separate occasions. “Do Bronx” bounced back from a narrow loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 with a composed, clinical win over Michael Chandler at UFC 309.

Tale of the Tape

Ilia Topuria – Odds 1.18 (Bet 365)

Record: 16-0

Age: 28

Height: 5ft7

Reach: 69”

Weight: Lightweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Charles Oliveira – Odds 5.00 (Bet 365)

Record: 35-10

Age: 35

Height: 5ft10

Reach: 74”

Weight: Lightweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira: Analysis

Topuria brings fight-ending power with his crisp boxing, tight combinations, and explosive footwork to spring in and out of range at the blink of an eye. Having overwhelmed elite featherweights, there’s good reason to believe that power will easily translate to 155. Add to that a 92% takedown defence rate, and Topuria presents a nightmare for anyone hoping to drag him into deep waters.

He will aim to keep the fight standing, cutting angles and blasting Oliveira with his trademark right hand. If he can avoid extended grappling exchanges, the former featherweight king has a strong chance of knocking out Oliveira, given he has been knocked out four times in his UFC career.

But the Brazilian is very lengthy for the division and this allows him to use nasty front and teep kicks that could slow Topuria down and also unbalance him. While Oliveira’s striking has improved massively under Diego Lima, he still thrives in chaos. Ideally, he will want to initiate scrambles and clinches, where he can look for a bodylock or a back take in a scramble, and then hunt for the neck or isolate an arm or leg.

Topuria vs Oliveira: Prediction & Betting Tips

This is without a doubt one of my most favourite fights on paper from recent memory, and it is really tough to call. Everyone automatically thinks Topuria is going to go in there and wipe out Oliveira because we’ve seen him knocked out before.

However, I think people are forgetting that we’ve seen “Do Bronx” hurt badly and still manage to finish the fight. 

I keep playing this fight over in my head and I keep visualising Topuria landing a brutal right hook which floors Oliveira, but as Topuria goes to finish it off, the Brazilian throws up a triangle and locks in a submission. This is truly going to be one of the best fights of this decade.

I’m looking for value here, and when you have the best submission artist in UFC history at odds of 10.00 to win via submission, it’s impossible not to sprinkle a small stake on that. My value pick for this is Charles Oliveira to win via submission at odds of 10.00 (Bet 365). 

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