UFC 318 – Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier: Preview & Betting Tips

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The main event of UFC 318 brings with it both violence and quite a lot of emotion. Max Holloway defends his BMF title against longtime rival Dustin Poirier in what’s  predicted to be a five-round war, and this will be Poirier’s last-ever fight after 14 years in the UFC.

Max Holloway (26-8) steps back into the Octagon at 155-pounds after his performance at lightweight against Justin Gaethje showcased improved power, sharper shot selection, and his trademark durability.

Dustin Poirier (30-9) is set to retire following this bout. And fittingly, it comes against the man he’s beaten twice before, in what will be his first fight in his home state of Louisiana since 2015.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway – Odds 1.75 (Bet Goodwin)

Record: 26-8

Age: 33

Height: 5ft11

Reach: 69”

Weight: Lightweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Dustin Poirier – Odds 2.05 (Bet Goodwin)

Record: 30-9

Age: 36

Height: 5ft9

Reach: 72”

Weight: Lightweight 

Stance: Southpaw

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier: Analysis

Despite this being a retirement fight for Poirier, this is a matchup of two of the very best boxers in UFC history. Holloway overwhelms with pace, pressure, and volume, averaging over 7.3 significant strikes per minute, while Poirier is a more calculated boxer with elite power and shot selection. 

Their 2019 war pretty much summed up how each of them excel in boxing but in different ways: Holloway pours on the pressure and drowns opponents with a barrage of punches, meanwhile Poirier has the heavier hands and shows poise and accuracy in the pocket to get the better of the exchanges. 

After 14 years of blood, sweat, and highlight-reel moments, the Louisiana native is looking to close this book with a fairytale ending. And he certainly still has the tools to do just that.

Holloway vs Poirier: Prediction & Betting Tips

Holloway looked sensational against Gaethje, in the fight where he became the BMF champion. But, the recent KO loss to Ilia Topuria set him back. I personally thought he should’ve never gone back down to featherweight anyway, as he looked far stronger and crisper at 155 in the Gaethje win. 

Nevertheless, the Hawaiian comes into this bout with a question mark regarding his chin, which is ridiculous to say considering how he’s been known for his incredible chin throughout his career. But, throughout combat sports history, we’ve seen countless examples of fighters with great chins eventually getting knocked out, and once that happens, it begins to deteriorate. We’ll have to wait and see if that’s the case with Holloway.

This one is a super close fight to call, and purely for sentimental reasons, I’m taking the underdog in this one. Dustin Poirier moneyline at odds of 2.20 (Bet Goodwin). I also like the look of Dustin Poirier to win by submission at odds of 17.00 (Bet Goodwin). Many people forget that Poirier does have a decent submission game, he just rarely uses it. But in this one, I think he could explore that avenue and potentially get a rear naked choke on the fence.

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