UFC Fight Night – Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan: Preview & Betting Tips

Scotland’s Chris Duncan takes on Poland’s Mateusz Rebecki in this upcoming UFC Fight Night card at the UFC Apex.

Duncan (13-2) has made a name for himself with aggressive forward pressure and heavy hands, but it’s on the ground where he’s made hay in recent times. The Scot is currently riding a two-fight win streak, with both wins coming via guillotine choke.

Since entering the UFC back in 2022, Rebecki (20-2) has had a solid run, accumulating five wins in six fights, with three of those wins coming inside the distance. The Polish native is now looking to push into the top 15 with a victory against “The Problem”.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki – Odds 1.44 (Bet 365)

Record: 20-2

Age: 32

Height: 5ft7

Reach: 66”

Weight: Lightweight 

Stance: Southpaw

Chris Duncan – Odds 2.88 (Bet 365)

Record: 13-2

Age: 32

Height: 5ft10

Reach: 71”

Weight: Lightweight

Stance: Orthodox

Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan: Analysis

Rebecki is a technically sound southpaw who brings a calculated, well-rounded approach to every fight. But it’s his wrestling that often separates him from the pack, with excellent takedown efficiency and top control, Rebecki has the ability to stifle a fighter like Duncan. However, he must be wary of Duncan’s tight squeeze in case he does jump the guillotine.

Despite being seen primarily as a striker, Duncan’s finishes have come both on the feet and via submission, making him an unpredictable type of brawler. If he can keep the fight upright and force a firefight, Duncan could have the Pole in trouble given he has the size, reach and power advantage.

Rebecki vs Duncan: Prediction & Betting Tips

Duncan has the power and killer instinct to pull off the upset, but he must remain wary of Rebecki’s technical striking from the southpaw stance, as well as his grappling ability. 

The Scotsman tends to start fast, while Rebecki often builds into the fight. So if Duncan wins round one, this would stand him in good stead for round two, because in a three round fight, you do not want to be dropping the first round. Or else you’ll be playing catchup, and this is where you can start to overcommit and make mistakes.

While I think Rebecki is a more well-rounded fighter, Duncan is a bad stylistic matchup I feel. He will not let Rebecki breathe in the first two rounds, and this is where he is very dangerous.I like the underdog in this one.

I’m taking Chris Duncan moneyline at odds of 2.88 (Bet 365), purely for value reasons as I don’t think Rebecki is a worthy clear favourite in this one.

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