BREAKINGAlexander Volkanovski vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based predictionBREAKINGAlexander Volkanovski vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based prediction

Alexander Volkanovski vs Islam Makhachev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇦🇺

Alexander Volkanovski

28-4-0
VS
🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0
44%10% Draw46%
Volkanovski
Makhachev
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Islam Makhachev a 46% edge over Alexander Volkanovski in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Alexander Volkanovski wins 88% vs Islam Makhachev at 97%

Volkanovski
10.0
Makhachev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

46% stoppage rate vs 18%

Volkanovski
5.6
Makhachev
2.1
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 168cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Volkanovski
3.0
Makhachev
7.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

88% survival rate vs 97%

Volkanovski
9.6
Makhachev
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

38 years old vs 34 years old

Volkanovski
5.4
Makhachev
8.5
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 29 bouts

Volkanovski
10.0
Makhachev
9.3
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.