BREAKINGIsrael Adesanya vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based predictionBREAKINGIsrael Adesanya vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based prediction

Israel Adesanya vs Islam Makhachev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇳🇿

Israel Adesanya

24-6-0
VS
🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0
49%10% Draw41%
Adesanya
Makhachev
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Israel Adesanya a 49% edge over Islam Makhachev in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Israel Adesanya wins 80% vs Islam Makhachev at 97%

Adesanya
9.6
Makhachev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

67% stoppage rate vs 18%

Adesanya
8.0
Makhachev
2.1
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 193cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Adesanya
7.0
Makhachev
3.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

80% survival rate vs 97%

Adesanya
8.8
Makhachev
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 34 years old

Adesanya
6.3
Makhachev
8.5
ExperienceWeight: ★★

30 bouts vs 29 bouts

Adesanya
10.0
Makhachev
9.7
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.