Jorge Masvidal vs Chael Sonnen

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Jorge Masvidal

35-17-0

Chael Sonnen

31-17-1

46%10% Draw44%

Masvidal

Sonnen

Predicted outcome: TKO / Late Stoppage

Our stats-based model gives Jorge Masvidal a 46% edge over Chael Sonnen in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a TKO / Late Stoppage in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Jorge Masvidal wins 67% vs Chael Sonnen at 63%

Masvidal

8.1

Sonnen

7.6

Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

46% stoppage rate vs 26%

Masvidal

5.5

Sonnen

3.1

Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 185cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Masvidal

4.0

Sonnen

6.0

DurabilityWeight: ★★

67% survival rate vs 65%

Masvidal

7.4

Sonnen

7.2

ExperienceWeight: ★★

52 bouts vs 49 bouts

Masvidal

10.0

Sonnen

9.5

Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

41 years old vs 49 years old

Masvidal

3.0

Sonnen

3.0

Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.