BREAKINGPaddy Pimblett vs Colby Covington — stats-based predictionBREAKINGPaddy Pimblett vs Colby Covington — stats-based prediction

Paddy Pimblett vs Colby Covington

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇬🇧

Paddy Pimblett

23-4-0
VS

Colby Covington

17-5-0
48%10% Draw42%
Pimblett
Covington
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Paddy Pimblett a 48% edge over Colby Covington in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Paddy Pimblett wins 85% vs Colby Covington at 77%

Pimblett
10.0
Covington
9.3
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

30% stoppage rate vs 24%

Pimblett
3.7
Covington
2.8
DurabilityWeight: ★★

85% survival rate vs 77%

Pimblett
9.4
Covington
8.5
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 178cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Pimblett
4.6
Covington
5.4
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

31 years old vs 38 years old

Pimblett
8.0
Covington
4.8
ExperienceWeight: ★★

27 bouts vs 22 bouts

Pimblett
10.0
Covington
8.5
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.